> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://isbm.savimbo.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://isbm.savimbo.com/methodology/zh-cn/xiang-mu-miao-shu/shi-shi-ji-hua/feng-xian-yu-bu-que-ding-xing.md).

# 风险与不确定性

指示物种在其本质上被假定为非永久性的。我们亦承认，所处系统复杂且混沌。因此，在 ISBM 方法学下，碳信用仅依据已实现成果签发，泄漏（如相关）则在项目层面实施（[项目区域](/methodology/zh-cn/xiang-mu-miao-shu/xiang-mu-bian-jie.md) 与 [监测计划](/methodology/zh-cn/jian-ce-ji-hua.md)). 

然而，PMP 应对项目指标中的风险及不确定性来源作出务实评估。建议至少承认以下不确定性来源：

* **计算过程中的不确定性**：数据录入、计算或结果解释出现错误的概率。
* **实施不确定性**：项目执行始终涉及一定风险，即团队实施该项目的能力可能受到影响。项目可能遭遇不可预见的障碍、人员配置问题或其他类型的项目管理问题。
* **技术监测设备不确定性**：所选方法的准确性如何，以及其产生何种误差？ 
* **生物多样性科学不确定性：** 生物多样性科学是一个不断演进的领域，项目往往依赖外部来源和不完整的科学依据来进行指示物种选择、生态系统分类，以及物种代表该生态系统的能力判断。
* **自然扰动风险** （例如森林火灾、飓风、地震、火山喷发、洪水和干旱） 
* **人为事件风险** （例如火灾、恐怖主义行为和战争）。


---

# Agent Instructions
This documentation is published with GitBook. GitBook is the documentation platform designed so that both humans and AI agents can read, navigate, and reason over technical content effectively. Learn more at gitbook.com.

## Querying This Documentation
If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question.

Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter, and the optional `goal` query parameter:

```
GET https://isbm.savimbo.com/methodology/zh-cn/xiang-mu-miao-shu/shi-shi-ji-hua/feng-xian-yu-bu-que-ding-xing.md?ask=<question>&goal=<endgoal>
```

`ask` is the immediate question: it should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language.
`goal` is optional and describes the broader end goal you are ultimately trying to accomplish on behalf of the user. GitBook uses it to tailor the answer towards what is most useful for that goal.

The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation.

Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.