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  • Executive summary
  • Front Material
    • Contents
    • Index of figures
    • Index of tables
    • Acronyms and abbreviations
    • Terms and definitions
  • Getting started
  • Introduction
    • The urgency of targeted biodiversity conservation
    • Simplicity, complexity theory, and biodiversity
    • Inclusion of Indigenous Peoples and local communities by design
    • Biodiversity methodology benefits
  • Overall description
    • Objectives
    • Scope
    • Limitations
  • Project description
    • Principles
      • Principles of working with IP
    • Eligibility criteria
      • Land ownership and law
    • Additionality
    • Project boundaries
      • Spatial limits of the BCP
      • Temporal limits of the BCP
      • Grouped projects
    • Implementation plan
      • Measurement approaches
      • Indicator species observations
      • Risks and uncertainty
    • Effective participation
      • Community involvement
      • Capacity for action
      • Financial transparency
      • Safeguards checklist
  • Calculation
    • Unit calculations
    • Area calculations
    • Time calculations
    • Integrity calculations
    • Value calculations
  • Baseline assessment
    • Baseline ecosystem categorization
    • Analysis of agents and drivers of biodiversity loss
    • Baseline biodiversity (optional)
    • Baseline risk of biodiversity loss
    • Indicator species selection
    • Indicator species integrity score
  • SDG contributions
  • Monitoring plan
    • Monitoring report
    • Additional monitoring requirements
  • Authors
  • References
  • Appendices
    • Appendix A: Biodiversity methodologies comparison table
    • Appendix B: Sample legal proof of land control
    • Appendix C: Sample baseline ecosystem categorization
    • Appendix D: Species categorization of richness
    • Appendix E: Sample selection of indicator species
    • Appendix F: Sample indicator-species observations
    • Appendix G: Sample open-source code and calculation
    • Appendix H: Indigenous authors
    • Appendix I: Letters of support
      • Fernando Ayerbe, Ornithology
      • Ned Hording, Biodiversity
      • Olber Llanos, Zoologist
      • Mike McColm, Ethnology
      • Peter Thomas, Anthropologist
      • Jesús Argente, Marine biology
      • Sara Andreotti, Marine Biologist
      • Carolina Romero, Lawyer.
      • Daniel Urbano, Herpetologist
      • Ramesh Boonratana PhD, Primatologist
      • Theodore Schmitt, Conservationists
      • Anja Hutschenreiter, Ecologist and Tropical Conservationist
      • Miguel Chindoy, Indigenous leader
    • Appendix J: Sample uses of biodiversity unit
    • Appendix K: How to do FPIC
    • Appendix L: Independent Expert Panel Checklist
    • Appendix M: How to calculate a biodiversity credit by hand
    • Appendix N: How to calculate home ranges
    • Appendix O: How to calculate integrity scores
  • Document history
  • Disclaimer
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  1. Project description
  2. Implementation plan

Risks and uncertainty

Ambiguity in project implementation

PreviousIndicator species observationsNextEffective participation

Last updated 1 year ago

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Indicator species are assumed to be impermanent in their very nature. And we acknowledge we are working in a complex, chaotic system. Thus under the ISBM methodology, credits are issued based on achieved outcomes alone and leakage (if relevant) is implemented at the program level ( and ).

However, the PMP should include a pragmatic assessment of risk and sources of uncertainty in project metrics. It is recommended to acknowledge at least the following sources of uncertainty:

  • Uncertainty in the calculation process: Probability of making errors in data entry, calculation, or interpretation of results.

  • Implementation uncertainty: Project execution always involves some risk in terms of the ability of the team to carry out the program. Projects may encounter unforeseen obstacles, staffing problems, or other types of project management issues.

  • Technical monitoring device uncertainty: how accurate is your chosen methods and what error do they produce?

  • Biodiversity science uncertainty: Biodiversity science is an evolving field, and projects often rely on external sources and incomplete science for indicator species selection, ecosystem classification, and the ability of the species to represent the ecosystem.

  • Risks in natural disturbances (eg. forest fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts)

  • Risks of human-induced events (e.g. fires, acts of terrorism, and war).

Project areas
Monitoring plan