Risks and uncertainty

Ambiguity in project implementation

Indicator species are assumed to be impermanent in their very nature. And we acknowledge we are working in a complex, chaotic system. Thus under the ISBM methodology, credits are issued based on achieved outcomes alone and leakage (if relevant) is implemented at the program level (Project areas and Monitoring plan).

However, the PMP should include a pragmatic assessment of risk and sources of uncertainty in project metrics. It is recommended to acknowledge at least the following sources of uncertainty:

  • Uncertainty in the calculation process: Probability of making errors in data entry, calculation, or interpretation of results.

  • Implementation uncertainty: Project execution always involves some risk in terms of the ability of the team to carry out the program. Projects may encounter unforeseen obstacles, staffing problems, or other types of project management issues.

  • Technical monitoring device uncertainty: how accurate is your chosen methods and what error do they produce?

  • Biodiversity science uncertainty: Biodiversity science is an evolving field, and projects often rely on external sources and incomplete science for indicator species selection, ecosystem classification, and the ability of the species to represent the ecosystem.

  • Risks in natural disturbances (eg. forest fires, hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, and droughts)

  • Risks of human-induced events (e.g. fires, acts of terrorism, and war).

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